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Post by aj0512 on Mar 16, 2023 10:08:47 GMT -5
Nice they were able to get a point on the road. I think it would take a total collapse at this point to not finish 4th or 5th. Not that the remaining schedule isn't tough, but I think every game is winnable.
Owen Sound picked up a regulation win at home over Flint last night. They're now 2 points back of the Firebirds and have 2 games in hand for the 5-seed, but their remaining schedule is tough (including at Barrie and two games against Sarnia).
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Post by donjohnson on Mar 16, 2023 10:50:48 GMT -5
Here is the playoff picture after the games yesterday. I've picked the games (W/L only, no ties) and here is how I think the seeds will shake out. I honestly think that our magic number is 77pts to secure home ice. Flint is unlikely to go 4-0 in their remaining games so 75 is probably their high water mark. OS and Guelph both have really tough schedules that I think will be 4-2 at best putting them at 75pts at best. Kitchener is too far behind and if we beat them, they won't be able to catch us. So, two wins (Regulation or OT) for us I think will lock us into the #4 spot and 3 wins will do it for sure.
4. Saginaw Spirit, 73 points (34-24-3-2) 34 ROW
– Spirit can finish as high as third place in the Western Conference or as low as eighth. (Remaining opponents [5]: at KIT, vs. HAM, at SOO, vs. GUE, vs. OS)
5. Flint Firebirds, 69 points (32-27-4-1) 30 ROW
– Firebirds can finish as high as fourth place in the Western Conference or as low as eighth. (Remaining opponents [4]: vs. HAM, vs. LDN, at KIT, vs. OS)
6. Owen Sound Attack, 67 points (31-26-4-1) 30 ROW
– Attack can finish as high as fourth place in the Western Conference or as low as eighth. (Remaining opponents [6]: at BAR, vs. KIT, vs. SAR, at SAR, at FLNT, at SAG)
7. Guelph Storm, 67 points (31-27-4-1) 26 ROW
– Storm can finish as high as fourth place in the Western Conference or as low as eighth. (Remaining opponents [5]: vs. LDN, vs. SAR, at ER, at WSR, vs. ER, at SAG)
8. Kitchener Rangers, 64 points (30-28-4-0) 30 ROW
– Rangers can finish as high as fourth place in the Western Conference or as low as eighth. (Remaining opponents [6]: vs. SAG, at OS, vs. KGN, at ER, vs. FLNT, at LDN)
My Final Prediction:
4) 79pts - Saginaw
5) 75pts - Flint
6) 73pts - Guelph
7) 70pts - Kitchener
8) 69pts - Owen Sound
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Post by swoopster on Mar 16, 2023 13:11:55 GMT -5
It is easily the most frustrating part about this team... I've watched them all year and yet I'm watching last night's game and screaming at the TV "how do you give up a breakaway there." It seems like I yell that 4-5 times per game which is 3-4 times more than I should. 3 of the 5 Windsor goals in regulation were odd man rushes or breakaways (Maggio goal). They also gave up the OT game winner on an odd man rush but that happens frequently during 3 on 3 OT. Coaching and its system... but I will be horsewhipped for making such a statement...  |
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Post by donjohnson on Mar 18, 2023 21:34:49 GMT -5
And just like that by my math we've locked up home ice in the playoffs! Other teams can tie us but I think we have the tiebreaker over everyone so 77pts is enough.
Hopefully we keep up the great play next weekend and head into the playoffs on a really good winning streak!
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Post by MidlandSpiritFan on Mar 18, 2023 23:11:13 GMT -5
And just like that by my math we've locked up home ice in the playoffs! Other teams can tie us but I think we have the tiebreaker over everyone so 77pts is enough. Hopefully we keep up the great play next weekend and head into the playoffs on a really good winning streak! My biggest concern is lack of playoff experience. Only Lennox and Theo Hill have played OHL playoff games. Flint still has a majority of their roster who played during their run to the Western Conference Final series last season. It’s gonna be fun! |
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Post by donjohnson on Mar 19, 2023 6:20:58 GMT -5
That is why finishing in the 4/5 game is so important. At a minimum the 1st round series should be a battle so we have the potential of getting 6 or 7 games even if it's a first round loss. That will go a long way for next season.
Goaltending is key in the playoffs and I think Lennox is the best goalie in the western conference so if we can stay out of the penalty box I think we can get out of the first round and then try our luck at one of the top 3 teams which hopefully we can go at least 5 games for more experience.
People can have their opinions about the trades but we went from the absolute basement to home ice advantage in 1 year and we have as many regulation and OT wins as London and Sarnia... It's been a GREAT season and I'm excited for the playoffs and then what this team will look like next year.
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Post by spiritfan8 on Mar 19, 2023 17:37:55 GMT -5
Lennox’s only playoff experience was as a fill in for the Ivan disaster pre-Covid. I agree he’s one of the best, but I’m not really sure that’s going to carry over. Other than that, I’d say management and the players have pretty much silenced the hordes. I dont know exactly how the guys turned it around. But great job.
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Post by kingpin794 on Mar 19, 2023 19:47:00 GMT -5
Fantastic job by the players and staff this season. I think most of us had them pencilled in for 6 or 7 before the season started. If you told me we’d sell off Bloom/Mintyukov and still get home ice in round 1, I’d call you nuts. I’d love to see us win a round but Flint (if it is them) is going to be a TOUGH out. Honestly anything from here on out is gravy. The guys have already shown host or not, we’re fighting for a title next season.
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Post by donjohnson on Mar 20, 2023 8:52:57 GMT -5
I thought I'd revisit my original post and show the results...pretty impressed with how this team has played down the stretch! Must-Wins (4): @ Kingston WINvs. Erie WINvs. Soo WIN@ Soo Good Chance To Win (4): @ Kitchener WINvs. Hamilton WINvs. Guelph vs. Owen Sound Low Chance To Win (1): @ Peterborough WINNot A Chance (2): @ Ottawa (OT LOSS)@ Windsor (OT LOSS)So, for the final 11 games, I would say that we'll be 6-5 for that stretch (8-3 would be the high-water mark) and it's CRITICAL that we beat the bolded teams at home. Those are the 4-point swings at this point in the year. Honestly, the hard team to fend off is going to be our friends in Flint. Both Owen Sound and Guelph have pretty tough schedules down the stretch (tougher than us and Flint). If I had to predict it now, we're going to be facing Flint in the first round in the 4/5 matchup. Well, I thought we would get 12 points in the final 3 weeks and it's pretty awesome that with 3 games to go, we're already at 14pts and have clinched home ice in the playoffs. For some reason the OHL Playoff Tracker still says that Flint can catch us but they can only tie us and we hold both tie-breakers. Maybe if there's a 3-way tie, something goofy happens, but we're for sure avoiding the big 3 (Lon, Win, Sar) and the way we've been playing on the road, the away games don't scare me as much although if they're in Flint, we won't be staying in a hotel like these other aways have been. |
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Post by MidlandSpiritFan on Mar 20, 2023 12:10:22 GMT -5
According to today’s updated OHL Playoff Tracker, Saginaw has clinched 4th place in the Western Conference. 4. Saginaw Spirit, 77 points (36-24-3-2) 35 ROW – Spirit will finish fourth in the Western Conference. (Remaining opponents [3]: at SOO, vs. GUE, vs. OS) 5. Flint Firebirds, 73 points (34-27-4-1) 32 ROW – Firebirds can finish as high as fifth place in the Western Conference or as low as eighth. (Remaining opponents [2]: at KIT, vs. OS) 6. Guelph Storm, 71 points (33-27-4-1) 27 ROW – Storm can finish as high as fifth place in the Western Conference or as low as eighth. (Remaining opponents [3]: at WSR, vs. ER, at SAG) 7. Owen Sound Attack, 69 points (31-26-6-1) 30 ROW – Attack can finish as high as fifth place in the Western Conference or as low as eighth. (Remaining opponents [4]: vs. SAR, at SAR, at FLNT, at SAG) 8. Kitchener Rangers, 69 points (32-28-5-0) 32 ROW – Rangers can finish as high as fifth place in the Western Conference or as low as eighth. (Remaining opponents [3]: at ER, vs. FLNT, at LDN) ontariohockeyleague.com/article/2023-ohl-playoff-tracker |
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Post by donjohnson on Mar 21, 2023 13:34:34 GMT -5
chl.ca/video/2022-23-kia-chl-top-10-rankings-week-24We somehow made an appearance in the CHL Top 10 as an honorable mention. We've had a nice run but I wouldn't put us ahead of Windsor or London despite their average records in the last 10 games. Nice to get some recognition for our recent success but I think it's just a bit premature.
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Post by Bthumme on Mar 21, 2023 14:52:25 GMT -5
chl.ca/video/2022-23-kia-chl-top-10-rankings-week-24We somehow made an appearance in the CHL Top 10 as an honorable mention. We've had a nice run but I wouldn't put us ahead of Windsor or London despite their average records in the last 10 games. Nice to get some recognition for our recent success but I think it's just a bit premature. Maybe it’s an omen because we’re going to be selected to host the memorial cup this week?  I was also very surprised to see this. |
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Post by eric8199 on Mar 21, 2023 15:04:12 GMT -5
Let's hope the CHL Top 10 curse doesn't strike again.
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Post by MidlandSpiritFan on Mar 21, 2023 17:28:29 GMT -5
Let's hope the CHL Top 10 curse doesn't strike again. Exactly! |
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Post by donjohnson on Mar 27, 2023 10:57:16 GMT -5
My Final Prediction: 4) 79pts - Saginaw 5) 75pts - Flint 6) 73pts - Guelph 7) 70pts - Kitchener 8) 69pts - Owen Sound Well, I almost got the order correct...really didn't bank on the Spirit completely mailing it in for the final 3 games. I am REALLY fearful that this is going to come back to bite them. They were on such a hot streak that if I was coaching, I'd want to continue that momentum into the playoffs. Instead, we laid 3 eggs and we come in limping because we were sitting 5-6 top players every night. I'm playing armchair QB but we've seen what happens with this team after trades the last two years how they go into a really bad stretch and I hope that they can turn it around and come out hot because Flint is going to be a very tough matchup. Overall though, I never would have thought we'd have home-ice advantage this year so we're in a good spot and have at least a 50/50 shot of making it to the 2nd round because I think we're about even with this Flint team. |
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I was also very surprised to see this.