2008/09 Predictions

[donjohnson]

Jul 31, 2008 22:50:54 GMT -5 thepuckman said:

As for Saad, if the rumors are true about him, he could be going to Notre Dame if he decides not to come to Saginaw. That program has really grown in the past few years, and appears as though it will continue to grow. That could be a win-win for the Saad family. Who knows.

A win-win for me too! Either Go Irish or Go Spirit!!!

[darrenpangfan]

Don Edwards should have probably referred to those two players as either teenagers or young adults. I initially didn't read too much into that statement but after thinking about it, words like that could and probably have angered entire lockerrooms at times.

Edwards reminds me a lot of Matt Millen. Neither were general managers at the levels they are at now and Millen had no general manager experience. Both have had to have a lot of on the job training because of their inexperience.

I also would like to say thank you to Mark Constantine for providing me again with the information that Ryan Daniels will most likely be traded. These articles are starting to remind me of how Detroit Tigers fans kept on hearing over and over about how Brandon Inge was going to be traded this past off-season because there was no where to play him. Now Pudge Rodriguez is traded, and Inge is the starting catcher again.

I honestly hope that Daniels comes back to the Spirit, wins 35-40 games, has a goals against average under 2.00, wins overage player of the year for the OHL and leads the Saginaw Spirit to an OHL championship. Then I can read the articles about how great of a season Daniels had and how it was such a brillant move that Edwards chose not to trade Daniels this off-season.

[acwright84]

the only way that happens is if steve mason gets special allowance to play this year changes his name to Ryan Daniels and signs with the spirit. Otherwise we may be talking about a different daniels because he can't even win a playoff series let alone a championship. Please.

[mccartystillsuxs]

That leaves us with Chappell as our only OA.

[spiritfan8]

There is nothing in the OHL more unreliable than spending the off-season relying on overagers to return.

[bpfox]

Aug 1, 2008 14:29:37 GMT -5 acwright84 said:

the only way that happens is if steve mason gets special allowance to play this year changes his name to Ryan Daniels and signs with the spirit. Otherwise we may be talking about a different daniels because he can't even win a playoff series let alone a championship. Please.

What "special allowance" would Steve need? He's the same age as Ryan Daniels and has one more year of OHL eligibilty just like Ryan has.

[igive2]

Aug 1, 2008 12:49:16 GMT -5 darrenpangfan said:

Edwards reminds me a lot of Matt Millen. Neither were general managers at the levels they are at now and Millen had no general manager experience. Both have had to have a lot of on the job training because of their inexperience.

Incorrect.

Edwards was GM of the Oakville Blades for two years. Many of his players/signings were the neucleus of this year's OPJHL championship team.

All Millen was, was a former linebacker/broadcaster who got close with the Ford family and was given the keys to the franchise.

[darrenpangfan]

Thanks igive2 for correcting me. I didn't realize that being the GM of the Oakville Blades was on the same level as being the GM of the Saginaw Spirit of the Ontario Hockey League. I didn't realize that the OPJHL was equivalent to the OHL.

[teamspirit08]

Lots of OHL Coaches and GMs start in Tier II or Jr.B. hockey - I remember Vellucci with the Jr.A. Compuware team about 10 years ago. You've got to start somewhere.

[IGive1]

I think there is a good chance McDonough comes back. He is trying out for a team in a league that has lots of guys with AHL & NHL experience. Unless the team he is trying to make has little depth, I think he comes back Stateside looking for work. He may look to ECHL or he might be back here.

[bpfox]

Ok folks, the season will soon be here. It's great that we are on page 7 of the predictions thread. (even though the actual predictions would only take up about two pages). It means we are all anxious for the season to start.

A couple of points to consider.

Don Edwards; Keep in mind there is a big difference between "Experience" and "Ability". If a person is a good manager, they can manage at any level. I would pick someone with experience at the Jr B level over someone who has only managed at say the AHL or NHL level any day. Experience with 16-20 year olds is more important to me than anything else. GMs at the higher levels don't have to deal with 15 and 16 year olds and parents of 15 and 16 year olds. Plain and simple, Junior Hockey is different and it doesn't matter if its Jr. A, Jr. B or Major Junior, you are still talking about kids and parents. The only thing that changes is the talent level of the kids and there just isn't that much difference for most of the players. And all of the difference is play on the ice. The off ice stuff is pretty much the same.

I sense panic out there about the possibility of having a first round and a second round pick not report. This is not a panic situation. Winning teams are not built around first round picks. Go back and check the roster of the top teams and look at the make up of those teams. Heck, look at our team. Yes, I know that Crawford and Brodie and Szwarz are key players for the Spirit, but so are Comrie (9th round), Breen (7th round) and Chappell (11th round). Not to mention guys like Murovich, Pleckaitis, Underwood, Taylor and Pasqualle, all of which were not drafted by the Spirit.

Let's not forget last year Kitchener's #1 pick did not report and was put back into the draft only to become Windsor's #1 pick and it does not look like he is going to report there either. If you want to build a champion you have to have confidence in your program and you have to be willing to take chances. The bottom line here is that no championship team is build just with the draft. I know there was a time when we all looked forward to seeing our new draft picks. That's because it was the only thing we had to look forward to. This team is beyond that now. From the middle of the pack up, first round picks take on a whole different status. Look at teams like London and Plymouth. For a while there, it seemed like Plymouth was always trading it first round pick (Taylor Raszka was not the only one) And let's not forget London's fiasco with Tommy Mannino. I am sure there are plenty more examples but let's just say, first round pick issues are not a Saginaw Spirit exclusive. Just keep in mind one thing. No team has ever won a championship by just taking the safe pick all of the time. I personally don't care about individual players. They come and they go. What I care about is what kind of "team" we are going to have. Are they going to put forth a good effort every night? Are they going to be competitive? Can they challenge for the first spot in the division? Can they make the playoffs? Can they finally win a first round playoff series? These are the things that are important to me. Can coach Watson make that happen? I think he can. Can Edwards get Watson the kind of players he needs to do that? Well I guess you could say the jury is still out, but if you look at last season, I would say the prospects are pretty good. Edwards was able to look beyond the draft and bring in some pretty good players. Why would anyone think the same thing won't happen this season. Think outside the box folks. It's more fun that way. Peace.

[newguy]

Aug 1, 2008 22:41:29 GMT -5 teamspirit08 said:

Lots of OHL Coaches and GMs start in Tier II or Jr.B. hockey - I remember Vellucci with the Jr.A. Compuware team about 10 years ago. You've got to start somewhere.

Fair enough. Want some huge differences?

1. Vellucci was an assistant GM/coach for Pete Deboer for several years, as Todd Watson was for Vellucci. Probably nobody better you could learn from. Edwards is learning on the job, and while there's been some minor accomplishments, as BP says -- "jury is still out". WAY out. If his Euro choices flop and Pasquale is only an "average" goaltender, then he's greasing the skids for his departure and the entry of Saginaw's 13th GM in their 7 year history.

2. Vellucci wasn't fired. Edwards was. Oakville crap-canned him four days after his season ended, a fact he tried to conceal and somewhat successfully from the Saginaw ownership.

3. Part of the clash perhaps is we all know Watson was their choice to coach all along. Watson happens to be Garber and Goslin's guy. Watson does not happen to be Edwards' guy. No amount of spin can conceal that Edwards took the job KNOWING he'd HAVE to hire Todd Watson as his coach. And in defence of Edwards, that's not fair to him. But Saginaw's owners, the GMs and coaches they have hired and "fairness" don't always fit nicely in the same sentence.

It's a similar scenario to the New York Islanders where an over-involved owner like Charles Wang hired Neil Smith and Ted Nolan as GM and head coach. A week or so later Smith quits because he's told he has to make EVERY decision by "committee". So they hire Garth Snow, who is told, you have to keep Ted Nolan. That lasted 2 seasons with plenty of sniping and acrimony, some of the similar things that we saw in articles between Edwards and Watson.

I feel a bit bad for Edwards, because he was very under-qualified for this job compared to the other people they interviewed before-hand, and will anyone stand up and say they EXPECT Edwards to be the GM, at the start of the 2010-11 season? But he wasn't allowed to hire his coach.

Mancini was not going to be allowed to hire Ian Herbers by ownership in the off-season last year, which wasn't the only reason, but was a big one that led to his firing as GM. But a pretty respected ECHL team in Johnstown that's accomplished a lot more in their history than Garber and Goslin have, had no problem hiring Ian Herbers right away as a head coach. I guess my point is that Edwards was placed in a rough position in some way by ownership. If and when he fails with the on-ice product, it won't be all his fault.

[IGive1]

A couple points:

DE- he is in a very difficult position, perhaps impossible position. Look at the article in the SNews when he was hired. He mentioned he did not know Watson before he was hired. Not your ideal situation.

In regards to 1st and 2nd round picks, namely Raszka and Mannino, the point to remember is although they did not work out for the team that picked them, they were signed and became an asset to be used to get someone else. Raszka came to Saginaw in return for Thorburn and a 2nd. Mannino would have brought something to London from Windsor on that trade and then to Windsor from Saginaw (Courtney?) when he came here. The point here, is once they are signed they have value. Pymouth's drafting of Pietricki a couple years ago produced nothing for them since he never signed and no deal could be made to move his rights to another team, perhaps they still could. If the Spirit don't sign these 2 and no other team wants their rights over time, they have no value and were a wasted opportunity. In tennis they would call that an unforced error.

[newguy]

Not to mention, it's not a valid comparison to compare Kitchener drafting Cam Fowler or Plymouth drafting Nick Petricki to Saginaw's scenario.

Kitchener & Plymouth: rock-solid, well-reputed, awesome places to play OHL hockey

Saginaw: to be kind, "not so much"

The Spirit have always been careful before with this. Costa drafted Patrick McNeill KNOWING he would commit. Was Bobby Ryan rated higher on the Spirit's list? Sure he was. But a bad team at the time like Saginaw couldn't not having McNeill not show up. And a mediocre to below-average team like Saginaw might be this year can't either. You don't play Russian Roulette with your 1st AND 2nd round picks when you're an average team. You can afford to when you're hosting the Memorial Cup (Kitchener), stacked to the gills with talent like Plymouth was when they drafted Petrecki, and a consensus conference favorite or co-favorite like Windsor will be this year.

*** Again, Garber was hammering Mancini to take Petrecki in the 2005 draft. Mancini insisted to Garber that Petrecki was absolutely not playing in the OHL and had his heart set on Boston College instead. Mancini took Torquato much to Garber's chagrin, and the rest is history. Torquato was a valuable asset to turn into Ryan O'Marra. Petrecki kept his word and never even flirted with the OHL. It's never worth the risk, and Edwards took a huge one when he didn't have to and after his 1st round pick last year (well, Garber's pick) wasn't very good last season.

It does raise the question whether the Spirit in only 18 months has slipped back to a club which isn't very "desirable" to play for. I can't tell, but I do know this. Tyler Haskins beat down the door and was eager to come play for Saginaw. So was O'Marra, so would Garlock and Maunu for the full season if they didn't have pro opportunities. Don't think for a second the Patrick Asselin story doesn't get around regarding the promises made to him which weren't kept to a pretty classy kid. Everyone knows everyone in the OHL or so it seems. So when the likes of Bob Mancini, Moe Mantha, Doug Lidster and agents for players like Asselin, Torquato, Platt, Mursak, and the like offer their opinion to other agents, scouts, NHL/AHL personnel of the "situation" in Saginaw, it's safe to say they don't say good things.

Wish it weren't true, but I think it is.

[bpfox]

As always, the Edwards situation is more complicated than can be expressed in a single thread.

The point about Pasquale is a good one. The Spirit paid alot to get him and if Edwards should know anything, it's goaltending. We all know he wasn't the Spirit's first choice, heck he wasn't even their second or perhaps third choice, but he is the guy who was hired and I'm not willing to make total judgement on a single season or a single draft. That does not put me solidly in Edwards corner either.

The point about not signing 1st round or 2nd round plays does also have some merit. In the case of 1st rounders, they have value if not signed even if their rights are not traded. They can be returned to the draft pool for future picks. In the case of Saad, the real decision might be down the road. Most reports seem to indicate that Saad will not report this season, but is looking forward to being in a Spirit uniform next season. There are some rumors he is also considering his NCAA options. If he does not report this season then his rights would have to be put back into the draft pool to get some value in return. If the Spirit hold on to his rights and he decides not to report next year then they pretty much get nothing. Time will tell how this plays out.

I have some serious doubts about the Spirit not knowing about Edwards firing from Oakville. I know about it, so why would anybody think they did not. I know many of you want to paint G&G as being stupid, but nothing could be farther from the truth. They may not have a great deal of hockey experiece, but that does not mean they are stupid. Did you know that Sparky Anderson was fired by the Reds before the Tigers hired him? Do you think the Tigers knew that? Getting fired in sports management is almost as common as getting hired.

On a side note, I am having a hard time coming up with Saginaw's first 11 general managers. Can someone help me with that. When I counted I got Costa Papista, Bob Mancini & Don Edwards. That's only 3, If Edwards in #12, who are the 8 I am missing. Keep in mind, you can't count Moe Mantha since he was only filling in as interim GM for part of a season. You also can't count Sheldon Ferguson because he never took the job. Even if you want to stretch the rules and count both of those guys, I still only get 5. So who are the other 7?


On another side note; Did anybody notice that the story about Saad's visit to Saginaw has been removed from the Spirit web site? Ok, time to start those rumors...