Playoff Picture

[bpfox]

With only 22 games remaining in the regular season, it's not too soon to begin playoff discussions.

Currently Saginaw holds the 8th, and final, playoff spot in the Western Conference. Owen Sound is currently 9th 6 points behind the Spirit for that last playoff spot. Owen sound has only 19 games left to move up.

Losses this week to the Soo and Sarnia have not helped Saginaw's position, but the good news is, they haven't lost much ground either. When the season started, most of us would have most likely said we would be happy if the team made the playoffs. The way it looks right now, that is a pretty high probability. So it's time to look forward to see what the playoffs might hold.

Clearly Kitchener is in control and is most likely to finish the regular season in the top spot. Likewise, the Soo looks to have a virtual lock on 2nd. Even though Windsor is only 5 points behind the Soo, they are not playing their best hockey right now and I expect that gap to increase. Only 10 point separate 4th place London from 8th place Saginaw. That said, final positioning is critical and every point counts.

I can't see Saginaw having any chance against Kitchener or the Soo in a seven game, first round series. Yes I know they have beaten Kitchener twice this year and they do seem to play them tight, the playoffs are a different animal. It is very possible that Saginaw was able to catch the Rangers "looking past" them and therefor not playing them as they should have. That will not happen in the playoffs

My current analysis tells me that Saginaw's best chance at a first round series win comes if they can finish the regular season in 6th place or higher. I had hoped they would make a strong run toward a home ice spot ( 4th ), but it doesn't look like that will happen now. The Spirit are only 4 points out of 6th and 6 points out of 5th. These are reasonable goals. A win tonight against Guelph takes on a "must win" feel about it. A win over Guelph would put the Spirit back into the 7th position. Sarnia travels to Erie tonight and is not likely to lose tonight so the Spirit need a win to keep pace.

From here on out, every game, every point is important. The games will not get any easier so the team needs to come out strong tonight against a rested Guelph team. Guelph is riding a three game winning streak and is 6 3 0 1 in it's last 10 games. So it's gut check time for the Spirit. Tonight we find out what kind of heart this team really has.........to be continued

[aj0512]

I agree 100%. I do not see us hanging with the Rangers or the Soo in a 7 game series. If we played the Soo, we might have a little more emotion in our game since they took us out last year, so we could have revenge on our minds. But it would still be tough. I honestly do think we could hang with Windsor and London. A series with Plymouth also could be pretty even, but that still worries me because historically the Whalers always seem to have our number. So I'm hoping we can somehow get the 6th seed (at least) at the end.

But hey, you never know how we might fare against the top teams in the playoffs. Just look at what Sudbury did last year.

[katokaelin]

The last two losses were huge. Both were teams in front of the Spirit. Not that they could legitamitely pass/catch the Soo at this point, but a win on Thur and last night would have put the Spirit ahead of the Sting. A 4 or 5 seed is still an achievable goal, but need to put some wins together, especially at home and against divisional foes.

Someone said that tonight's game is huge. They all are at this point, especially a team fighting for playoff position. Last time Guelph was in town the Spirit were horrible. Let's hope for different outcome this time.

[bpfox]

Weekly Update:

With 20 games remaining on the schedule, the Spirit are in 8th place in the conference with 50 points. They have an eight point lead on Owen Sound with two games in hand. Owen Sound would have to go on a bit of a tear and the Spirit would have to fall flat to drop out of the playoff picture at this point.

It looks like the 8 playoff teams are pretty well set with only final positioning to be determined. The top two spots are pretty solid with Kitchener most likely to finish first and the Soo second. 3-8 is still any body's guess. Saginaw is 5 points out of 7th place, but only 6 points out of 5th.

Today's key match ups: Guelph at Kitchener, Sault Ste Marie at Plymouth and London at Windsor.

Tomorrow's key match ups: Sarnia at Saginaw & the Soo at Windsor.

Ottawa comes to town tonight having played Thursday in Windsor and last night in Plymouth. This means Ottawa is playing it's third game in three nights against a rested Spirit team. (I wonder how much the 67 faithful are complaining about this?) Saginaw, once again is in a position to gain some ground this weekend with six western conference teams playing each other today(that equals three losers) and a "four point" game tomorrow.

Saginaw needs to get to at least 6th place to have a real shot at a first round series win. That isn't going to be easy, but it is within the realm of possibility. Wins tonight and tomorrow will tighten things up quite a bit and make the next few weeks very entertaining. Let's hope there are as many fireworks inside the arena tonight as there are outside. Peace.

[aj0512]

Guelph and London are on hot streaks right now. Kind of surprising since a lot of people (including myself) were expecting a free fall of the the Knights after the Mason trade, but they've won 7 straight. Guelph is 8-1-0-1 in their last 10.

The only team who is somewhat struggling right now is Plymouth. 4-6 in their last 10, lost 2 straight, the Soo is up next for them.

In all honesty, I hope I'm wrong, but I think we'll wind up with the 8th seed. We've just been a little too inconsistent with our play. We need to win tonight and tomorrow, in my opinion, to get back in the thick of things, and also make up for not getting a single point last weekend.

My current 1st round projections: 1 Kitchener vs. 8 Saginaw, 2 Soo vs. 7 Plymouth, 3 London vs. 6 Sarnia, 4 Windsor vs. 5 Guelph.

[bpfox]

Your points are valid. While London and Guelph have been hot lately, I don't think it will last. I do, however, expect London to catch Windsor for third, but that has more to do with Windsor falling back than it does London moving up. Look for Sarnia to be on the heels of both. I also agree Plymouth is fading fast. There is still enough time left in the season for the homer in me to make the following first round predictions:

#1 Kitchener vs #8 Plymouth
#2 Sault Ste Marie vs #7 Guelph
#3 London vs #6 Saginaw
#4 Sarnia vs #5 Windsor

I reserve the right to change my mind on a week to week basis. Stay tuned for next weeks prediction. Peace.

[acin]

Bpfox, I hope your prediction is correct =) It'd be sick to play London in the first round. I think we'd beat them.

[aj0512]

Tonight's games: Guelph goes into Kitchener and wins 2-1. That's two nights in a row that Kitchener has lost on home ice if I'm not mistaken. Plymouth beat the Soo 5-2 and London beat Windsor 4-2.

[aj0512]

Well after yesterday afternoon's debacle, we owe a big thanks to the Oshawa Generals who outscored the Owen Sound Attack 5-0 in the 3rd period to come back and win 7-5. So we are still 8 points up on the Attack with 2 games in hand for the final playoff spot. Owen Sound has 16 games left while Saginaw has 18. So if I've done the math correctly, our magic number in points to clinch a playoff spot is 24 (I think). London has decided not to lose anymore, so we can probably plan on starting on the road assuming we make the playoffs. Here are the standings...

5. Plymouth, 60 points, 17 games left
6. Sarnia, 58 points, 18 games left
7. Guelph, 57 points, 18 games left
8. Saginaw, 52 points, 18 games left
=============================
9. Owen Sound, 44 points, 16 games left

[IGive1]

I think they finish 8th, which is probably a correct position relative to the quality of the other teams.

They make the playoffs and get 2 home games which probably meets the team's expectations at the beginning of the year.

[MidlandSpiritFan]

Here is how things stand in the Western conference after tonight's games. Saginaw is now 10 points ahead of Owen Sound with 2 games in hand. Magic number for Saginaw to clinch the 8th playoff spot is 21 points. Any combination of Spirit points for and Owen Sound points lost totalling 21 points gives Saginaw the last spot outright. If there is a tie for the last playoff spot, I believe it would be decided in a 1 game playoff. In order for Saginaw to claim the 7th spot from Guelph they need to finish ahead of the Storm. If they tie with Guelph in points the Storm will get the higher seed since they won the season series 3 games to 1.

1. Kitchener Rangers, 81 points, 17 games left (already clinched playoff spot)
2. Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, 70 points, 16 games left
3. Windsor Spitfires, 69 points, 15 games left
4. London Knights, 67 points, 16 games left
5. Plymouth Whalers, 60 points, 17 games left
6. Sarnia Sting, 60 points, 16 games left
7. Guelph Storm, 57 points, 17 games left
8. Saginaw Spirit, 54 points, 17 games left
===========================================================
9. Owen Sound Attack, 44 points, 15 games left
10. Erie Otters, 25 points, 16 games left

[bpfox]

Good report SSF, I was a little slow in getting out this weeks update and now I don't have to, so thanks. I would add one comment though. The first tie breaker is total wins, so it is possible for Saginaw to tie Guelph in points and still move ahead of them even though Guelph owns the "head to head" tie breaker. As it stands right now, the Spirit and Guelph are tied in the wins catagory so it would go to the second tie breaker which is the head to head record.

[MidlandSpiritFan]

bpfox said:

Good report SSF, I was a little slow in getting out this weeks update and now I don't have to, so thanks. I would add one comment though. The first tie breaker is total wins, so it is possible for Saginaw to tie Guelph in points and still move ahead of them even though Guelph owns the "head to head" tie breaker. As it stands right now, the Spirit and Guelph are tied in the wins catagory so it would go to the second tie breaker which is the head to head record.

BPFox.....so 1st tie breaker is total wins, 2nd tie breaker is head to head?? So if 2 teams tie for 8th spot does home ice for the 1 game playoff go to the team with most total wins??

[bpfox]

That's a good question SSF. I'm not 100% sure how they deternine home ice. That said, I don't think we will have to worry about that. I don't think there is anyway that Owen Sound is going to make up 10 points in only 15 games. Also, if Saginaw can tie Guelph for 7th I don't think head to head is going to come into play since Saginaw currently is tied in wins with Guelph and I can't see us making up 3 points on Guelph without getting more wins than them.

[aj0512]

TIE BREAKING SYSTEM

If two or more teams are tied for the final OHL playoff position in either conference, sudden-death playoff games will be used to determine the team that advances.

For all other playoff positions, the following tie-breaking procedures are in place:

1. The team with the most number of wins during the regular season shall be declared higher in the standings.

2. If two teams are still tied, the team with the best record in head-to-head competition (based on points including overtime losses) shall be declared higher in the standings. If more than two teams are tied after the first tie-breaker, the percentage of available points earned in games among each other shall be used to determine the standing.

3. If still tied, the team with the greater differential between goals scored for and against by clubs having equal standing after the second tie-breaker shall be declared higher in the standings.

SOURCE: ontariohockeyleague.com/playoffs/